Seven billion dollars in cash got misplaced in Iraq because of the “fog of war.”  Either 30,000 or 650,000 Iraqis died in consequence of the U. S. occupation; the number’s not knowable because of the fog of war. Amid the fog of war, U. S. pilots are caught on tape strafing a squad of British soldiers. The fog of war keeps military authorities from noticing atrocities committed by the growing criminal element in our armed forces. 

Where does this metaphor come from, and why are we suddenly hearing it so often?  You won’t find it in the works of Stephen Crane or Rudyard Kipling.  Eisenhower didn’t use it, and neither does Colin Powell. It came up recently when filmmaker Errol Morris made it the title of his 2003 documentary about failed warmaker Robert MacNamara, but it’s not a new concept.    

The idea of a fog of war goes back at least to a Prussian general whose troops got beaten repeatedly by Napoleon’s forces, right up until the French conqueror’s fortunes were reversed at Waterloo.  This Prussian,the esteemed Carl von Clausewitz, wrote a book in 1832 on the philosophy of war that is regaining popularity among “scholarly” militarists. 

As a chronic loser of military engagements, Clausewitz seems to have anticipated Murphy’s Law, which says that what can go wrong will go wrong.  The fog of war is an extension of this doctrine.  Amid the smoke, the flying balls of lead, the flashing blades, the blood, the screams, and the dead bodies, there will be confusion, and military tactics will sometimes go awry.  Can’t be helped.  Oh, well.

I think the reason you haven’t heard much about the fog of war until recently is that is looks a lot like an excuse for malfeasance.  Today, with military malfeasance at a level unseen since the 18th Century, excuses are needed, and the fog of war seems to get the point across.  Never mind that Clausewitz was referring literally to gunsmoke, of which there was plenty from the firearms of his day and which has been largely removed from the modern field of combat.

So when you hear a general or government official or an agent of the commercial media use the term “fog of war,” don’t lose sight of the true meaning of this picturesque metaphor: incompetence, failure, and defeat.